Bioenergy crops are expected to grow up to 39 EJ by 2030, as analyzed and suggested by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
The global energy picture is changing rapidly in favor of renewable energy. According to IRENA’s global renewable energy roadmap – REmap 2030 – if the realisable potential of all renewable energy technologies beyond the business as usual are implemented, renewable energy could account for 36% of the global energy mix in 2030. This would be equal to a doubling of
the global renewable energy share compared to 2010 levels.
Several projects are already demonstrating this trend in tropical countries where lignocellulosic perennial crops can improve soil organic matter and replace fossil energy sources. Photo: TIBBAR ENERGY USVI
IRENA predicts that biomass use for power and district heating could reach 36 EJ, or one-third of total use, in 2030, while use in transport applications could climb to 31 EJ, or 29 per cent of total use. Heat for industry and buildings would reach 41 EJ, of which only 6 EJ would come from traditional methods.
Biomass from energy crops: How much un-used land?
Well, the good news is that IRENA establish a very strict sustainability criteria for solid biomass from dedicated energy crops. All food demand predictions and food security criteria are being considered for all lands and they assumed currents trends of sustainability including the fact that several areas of the world are experiencing dobule production (food and energy from same land). Irena uses data from FAO (2014) and established that “According to the FAO, worldwide there are approximately 13 billion hectares (ha) of land available, of which 4.5 billion ha are suitable for crop production. Out of this 4.5 billion ha, 1.8 billion ha is not available for crop production as they are used for non-agricultural purpose (e.g., urban and protected areas) or needs to be protected for environmental protection (closed forests6 ). Thus, the total amount of suitable land available for crop production is estimated at approximately 2.7 billion ha. The current production of food crops utilises some 1.5 billion ha of land, of which 1.3 billion ha falls under this category of “suitable land”. As a result, about 1.4 billion ha additional land is suitable but unused to date and thus could be allocated for bioenergy supply in future.
IRENA’s recommendations center on expanding power from biomass and energy crops are expected to be a very large share (26-34% of total biomass) using only very marginal lands not used for food. Chart: Breakdown of biomass supply potential estimates by type, 2030
In the assessment of the high range of supply, (i) very suitable, (ii) suitable, (iii) moderately suitable, and (iv) marginally suitable land was selected. Closed forests, highly protected areas and land reserved for infrastructure and housing were excluded. For the low range of supply, marginally suitable land was excluded from the analysis. In this assessment, only “cereal” is assumed as the potential energy crop, which results in a conservative supply potential. Including the assessment of sugar and oil crops, permanent grass, algae and other suitable resources could increase the bioenergy supply potentials.
Breakdown of biomass supply by regions, 2030
Bioenergy crops to be grown on marginal lands: where are those lands?
It is clear that total potential for biomass sector will be in Asia, however it is expected by IRENA that bioenergy crops potential become maximum in Latin America, followed by N.America, Europe and Africa.
Renewable Subsidies Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels
Even if the entire package of REmap2030 policy recommendations is instituted, the renewable energy sector would require $315 billion per year by 2030, a price tag that pales in comparison to the $544 billion in subsidies fossil fuels received in 2012 according to the International Monetary Fund. The bill looks even like an even better bargain after factoring in up to $740 billion in health and environmental benefits from reduced emissions by 2030.
Find the report here.
Find alternatives for marginal lands here.
Will this compromise food security in future. Do bio-energy crops give economical returns to growers in marginal soils? I think we need a wider debate on this subject.
Irena is an International Agency and great for Tibbar and the Caribbean “How to create alternative energy in the Caribbean” Sounds like a workshop Tibbar could teach!
Dear E.V.S.Prakasa Rao, you can check food security issues here https://bioenergycrops.com/blog/2014/09/09/food-security-and-biofuels-land/
We are very much concern about the food security issue. As you can see, croplands available and less suitable lands as categorized by FAO, are about 3 billion hectares. Both FAO and IRENA agree on this estimation.
Biomass delivered alternatives using cropping systems from marginal areas have been suggested to be very cheap because lands have a very low opportunity cost. We have seen this in many areas of the world. A good example is in tropical countries where previously deforested lands have been converted into grasslands and then often abandoned because they are not very much productive for typical cash crops in these regions (sugarcane, coffee, etc.). As global economies progress, trading and technology make farmers and peasants to have food access with lower costs. In better suited lands, yields increase and food security is more related to both aspects and not local food production on very marginal lands (for example that is the case of Cerrado areas in Northern Brasil trying to grow corn to produce few bushels). Producing wood and straw from crops to obtain heat and power is often much more profitable and lands in those areas are very much abundant and available.
We have recently saw cases in tropical countries where IRR (internal Rate of return) from investments on renewable energy determine farm net margins increments from 200 to 500 U$D/hectare per year. And that is going to replace coal, gas or other fossil energy sources that in several countries have very high tariffs and require to import the energy. We support the idea that renewable energy from sustainable reforestation and energy grasses or other biomass cropping systems (even bushes or shrubs in some cases) as well as double purpose systems (agroforestry producing food and energy from same land) can be easily promoted as a better social welfare benefit in these scenarios. Cheaper food, less energy import dependency and more renewable energy promoting local employment. That is what IRENA thinks as well.
If you have a crop like sweet sorghum the food security need not be comprised as it is a multipurpose crop giving food, fodder, fuel and fertilizer.
Sure, and we never promote biomass supply chains with annual crops because it is in general less sustainable regarding nutrient cycling and more expensive in terms of delivered biomass ($/BTU at destination). However Sorghum as other annual grasses can often give the initial flexibility projects require. A crop capable to produce 30+ tons/ha in few months can be part of mixed multi feedstock supply chain and have some good advantages to start.In general all depends on the lands, but is not certain that 100% of the times sorghum will be only possible to be cultivated on very suitable and food lands. In this regard we find some projects to get low costs and low risks and CAPEX (for plantations) when starting using some sorghum. In the long run on the contrary, we prefer biomass supply chain with other species: perennials (woody and herbaceous cropping systems).
The report on the global scale is appreciable. But the true scenario of LDC country like Nepal is still in the ground state. The biomass resources support over 85 % of the total energy generation within the nation, less than 5 % is in the commercial transaction and over 99 % generate non-renewable energy. I wonder whether the existing biomass energy situation of the LDCs including Nepal is actually assessed or not ?
This is a well impressed POST, that most of the contents are highly beneficial and educative, mainly on the corn growing for Food, Heat and Power. AHANONU CONCEPT GHANA LTD have taking notes.
Thanks!
Yes!! I may agree that there are many vast of lands of Hectares upon Hectares (ha) in tens of billions still not well used yet. So the 2030 estimation could be realizable, even with plus.